Remember how I told Roving Bandit to chill out?
Well, maybe that has changed as reports are coming in that the Northern military has just bombed an SPLA base in Northern Bahr El Ghazal.......
Stay tuned, I will hopefully have more on this later.....well, no....hopefully this all gets resolved and we never hear about it.
Update: The story has now made it to the news, though in a couple of versions:
While most reports (more)I have heard claimed that the two helicopters bombed an SPLA base, Voice of America reports that the bombings were targeting a referendum registration centre. What it is agreeable is that the attack was conducted in Northern Bahr el Ghazal by helicopters and that the North outright denies the event.
What I don't get is SAF's intentions. If they had in fact bombed a registration centre, then it could be that their intention was to scare people from going to the registration centres with the idea that they may just get bombed by helicopters. It is heavily dependent on 'availability heuristics' but is a common terror tactic.
However, if they had bombed the SPLA base for 2 hours (between 10 am and 12pm), injured 6 people and then simply went home, then I am very confused and very worried as to what piece of information is being left out of the story from either sides. The North outright denies any attack taking place and the South has yet to kick up a massive storm about the whole incident (as would typically be expected if the North openly attacked a Southern military base).
I'm not quite worried yet, just very confused and suspicious of everyone. Especially the Reuters reporter who covered the story......McDoom (she must get that all the time).
Update 2: I just got another one.....Maybe, everything happened as ST and Reuters reported, but the South has not produce such a great reaction because they are fully aware that the North is simply trying to provoke and so the South has decided to be the big man. Now the fact that I didn't interpret the event this way the first time indicates how little faith I have in either side to act maturely......either that, or being bored in post-conflict is pushing my mind to want to create conspiracy theories.
Update 3: I should really just wait until incidences are fully over before I post things.....
So it turns out the VOA story holds some truth as the 2 civilians that were injured were on their way to the registration post when they were attacked. Furthermore, the President of the South has released a statement that the South will not conduct any reprisal attacks. This is a real strong sign of hope for peace. Clearly Khartoum is aware of the international backlash that will come from an all out offensive on the South. And the South is not falling for any provocation to drag it back into a very messy war. There is somewhat of an element of the mutually assured destruction doctrine at play and hopefully it will stay in play throughout the process.
Panic averted, carry on.....